Through July 12, 2027, Monroe County will award zero market-rate and zero workforce building allocations anywhere in the unincorporated Keys. Big Pine Key and No Name Key are included. Starting with the July 2027 period, the schedule gives the two islands two market-rate and two market-rate workforce allocations a year. If you are buying a vacant residential lot here this fall, you are buying a place in a line. The county's own ranking list shows that how quickly the line moves depends mostly on a map designation called Tier, and very little on how long an owner has waited.
A Year With No Allocations
The zero year has nothing to do with a shortage of state capacity. In 2025, Senate Bill 180 extended the Keys' hurricane evacuation clearance time from 24 to 24.5 hours. On December 17, 2025, the State Administration Commission divided 900 new building permit allocations, and Monroe County's share was 657. The pause comes from local paperwork. The county's old allocation schedule ended July 13, 2026, and new allocations cannot be awarded until the amended Comprehensive Plan and Land Development Code take effect. In April 2026, Planning Commission minutes put the first allocation period under the new rules at July 13, 2027. As of this writing, that date is still an anticipated start. It has not been confirmed.
The timing has practical effects. Under Resolution 154-2026, the county is not accepting new market-rate or affordable ROGO applications until a new allocation period opens. Applications already in the system keep earning perseverance points during the pause. A buyer who closes on a lot today with no application on file starts from zero. The applications ahead of that buyer keep adding points.
There are about two dozen of them. A May 2026 county handout lists 24 pending ROGO applications on Big Pine and No Name Keys. At two market-rate awards a year, that is roughly a dozen years of awards before anyone who files later gets a turn. The math is rough, since workforce allocations and withdrawn applications will change it, but it shows the scale.
Tier Outranks Time
The Planning Commission approved its most recent Big Pine/No Name market-rate ranking on February 25, 2026, covering Year 34, Quarter 2. The list shows the order in which owners would be served, and the order does not follow the dates the applications were filed.
| Position on the list | Application date | Tier | Total points |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1st | November 2024 | Tier 3 | 31 |
| 6th | July 2008 | Tier 2 | 23 |
| 7th | October 2008 | Tier 2 | 23 |
| 23rd, last | 2018 | Tier 1, Sands area | -0.5 |
An application filed in late 2024 sits first. One filed in July 2008, more than 17 years before the list was approved, sits sixth. The reason is the scoring. On Big Pine and No Name, Tier 3 land starts with 20 points, Tier 2 with 10 and Tier 1 with zero. Perseverance points come slowly once the first four years have passed. For Tier I and II lots, applicants earn one point a year for the first four years and half a point a year after that. A Tier 2 owner who has waited since 2008 still trails a Tier 3 owner who applied two years ago by eight points.
The bottom of the list carries more penalties. The score sheet takes points away for lots on No Name Key, for lots in or near marsh rabbit habitat buffers, and for lots in the Key Deer Corridor. Tier 1 has a separate limit as well. County code allows no more than one Tier I allocation every two years on Big Pine and No Name, and the most recent one was awarded November 13, 2024. The ranking list also shows how owners try to close the gap. Some applications carry aggregation points, which are earned by combining contiguous lots, and some carry land dedication points. Both can move an application up. Neither guarantees an award.
Two lots can have similar listing prices and very different chances of ever getting a house. The Tier line on the county map explains most of that difference.
The Habitat Rules Changed, but They Are Not What Holds Lots Back
Most of this summer's news coverage focused on the federal habitat framework, and those changes matter. The Big Pine Key Habitat Conservation Plan expired in April 2023, and its Incidental Take Permit expired June 30, 2026. On June 10, the Board of County Commissioners adopted Resolution 155-2026. Under it, Big Pine and No Name permits go through the county's Permit Referral Process under the 2010 Biological Opinion starting July 1. The resolution keeps Condition G of the old permit except G.3, which means the 1.1 H habitat impact ceiling and 3:1 mitigation both remain. It also caps new homes on the two islands at 236, counting those already issued under the HCP. Condition G also covers fencing. No new fences are allowed in Tier 1 without Service authorization, and no additional fences are allowed in the US-1 commercial corridor.
The habitat budget still has room. According to the county's May 2026 accounting, permitted development has used 0.5841 H of the 1.1 cap, and the pending applications would add 0.0288 H. The county reports 3.2782 H of mitigation acquired, which is 1.4395 H more than current and pending impacts require. Resolution 155-2026 allows private applicants to use that county-purchased surplus to meet their mitigation requirement. Those mitigation figures come from the county's last annual report and do not reflect a current balance. The handout does not say how many homes have been built against the 236 cap.
Two parts of the habitat picture are still uncertain for buyers. First, the county said in April that it was working with the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service to discontinue "the county's subsidization of private property owners seeking permits for private development." No published source says who will provide mitigation once the surplus is gone, or what it would cost. Second, the review process is more involved than it used to be. For a lot in a Species Focus Area, the county uses its Species Assessment Guides to decide whether USFWS technical assistance is needed. If it is, the owner must get that assistance before the county approves a building permit. Under the proposed code text, if the owner rejects the conditions the Service sets, the county may not issue the permit.
The rules may also change again. On August 3, Keys Last Stand, the Key Deer Protection Alliance, Save Our Key Deer and Big Pine United asked the county to write the 1.1 H ceiling, 3:1 mitigation, the 7-acre clearing limit and the 236-unit cap directly into county law. They also asked for a review of the Tier Overlay District maps using updated habitat information. The county held a public meeting on those requests in Marathon on September 21. No source available for this post reports any action from it. If the Tier maps are redrawn, a lot's score could change too.
What to Pull Before You Sign
The listing will show the price. You will have to get the rest from the county, ideally during the inspection period:
- Tier designation. On these two islands, Tier sets the starting score and caps how high a lot can rank.
- Location penalties. Check whether the parcel is on No Name Key, near marsh rabbit habitat buffers, or inside the Key Deer Corridor.
- Existing ROGO application. If the seller has an application on file, find out its date, current points and rank on the latest list. That application keeps earning points during the hiatus. A brand-new application cannot be filed until the next allocation period opens.
- H value and Species Focus Area status. A new single-family home's habitat impact is the parcel's H value times one. Species Focus Area status determines whether USFWS review comes before the permit.
- Any lawful pre-1992 dwelling. A unit that lawfully existed on or about July 13, 1992 may qualify as ROGO-exempt through a county determination. Depending on parcel-specific code requirements, it may be rebuilt or transferred to another site. A vacant lot does not carry that exemption automatically.
Questions about rights and remedies belong with a land-use attorney and the Monroe County Planning Department. This list helps you decide which questions to ask them.
If the Allocation Never Comes
The county has fallback options, but they move slowly. Owners can file administrative relief applications during the hiatus. Resolution 154-2026 says any resulting allocations cannot be awarded until the next allocation-period closure, expected in January 2028, and the hiatus does not count toward the eligibility clock. The 2025 plan language provides that an owner of a property designated Tier I, II or IIIA who has gone four consecutive years without an award and has applied for administrative relief may receive a county or state purchase offer if funding is available. The county is currently amending that rule. On September 14, 2026, the Monroe County Land Authority adopted its FY2027 budget, which includes a $3.25 million "ROGO Reserve" capital line. The budget does not say how much of it will go to Big Pine or No Name lots. A Beneficial Use application costs $8,760 under the county fee schedule adopted August 19, 2026.
For sellers, a lot with a well-ranked Tier 3 application on file is a different product from a Tier 1 parcel with no application. Pricing should reflect that.
FAQ
Can I submit a new ROGO application for a Big Pine Key lot right now?
No. Resolution 154-2026 defers new market-rate and affordable ROGO applications until a new allocation period opens. County staff expect that to happen July 13, 2027, pending the plan amendments.
Did the end of the Habitat Conservation Plan remove the Key deer protections?
No. Monroe County Growth Management Director Emily Schemper said the protections "are not going away" and have been carried into the Biological Opinion. Big Pine and No Name properties also remain subject to Condition G.
Does a Tier 1 lot have any path to an allocation?
It does, but the path is narrow. Tier 1 is limited to single-family homes and accessory uses, with a cumulative maximum of 10 units or H=0.022, whichever produces the lower impact. Only one Tier I allocation can be awarded every two years.
A lot on Big Pine or No Name Key can be a sound purchase once you know its Tier, its points and its place in line. Ally Kelley helps buyers and sellers gather that parcel-level information before an offer is written, and works with the land-use professionals who can confirm it. Request a private consultation to review a specific lot before you commit.
